There is always an endless supply of melons.

Originally a normal “rumor”, but it can be reversed several times.

The cause of the incident: the “infinite traceability” of the United States

Last night, the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” exposed heavy material, saying that its reporters had received news in the supply chain that US semiconductor equipment manufacturers LAM (Panlin Semiconductor) and AMAT (Applied Materials) and other companies sent letters asking China to engage in military and civilian operations in China. Enterprises that integrate or supply integrated circuits for military products (such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, etc.) are not allowed to use semiconductor equipment from US listed manufacturers to manufacture military integrated circuits, and the “infinite traceability” mechanism takes effect.

The United States launched “infinite retrospective” on SMIC and Hua Hong, and the plot reversed anyway

The meaning of “infinite traceability” is probably that, regardless of whether these foundries know about it or not, if you find that the products you manufacture are used for military purposes, you will be held accountable.

Immediately after the news came out, the public opinion of the entire semiconductor industry was ignited. You must know that Applied Materials and Fanlin are the first and fourth largest equipment manufacturers in the global semiconductor equipment market. Leading the industry in the field, its advanced process equipment is difficult to replace.

Before that, the United States had released news that it would impose new restrictions on exports to China, including civil aircraft parts and semiconductor production equipment. If the news is true, it would also represent an escalation of U.S. controls on exports to China.

Rumor 1: The news is a rumor

This morning, Sina Finance and other media began to report that after the news that the United States had launched the “infinite traceability” mechanism was released, the CITIC Securities Electronics Group immediately claimed through the media that the US ban on China’s semiconductor foundries was a rumor.

According to Sina Finance, after the above-mentioned news was released, the CITIC Securities Electronics Group immediately inquired about the relevant listed companies, and SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor stated that they had not received similar letters. In addition, CITIC Securities also stated that it has confirmed with the source Cailian Press (Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily), the other party said that the relevant description is inaccurate, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have nothing to do with this incident, and have not received similar letters, apologize and confirm The relevant manuscript will be revised later.

CITIC Securities Electronics Group stated that Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Lam (LAM) are important equipment suppliers of SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, and the suppliers have no reason to send letters to downstream customers. The logic is unreasonable from a commercial point of view, unless the United States Instructed by the relevant departments, the authenticity needs to be further confirmed the source of the news.

Rumor 2: Refute your own rumors

At noon, the public account of CITIC Securities issued a statement saying that it had not accepted any media interviews, and the relevant reports had nothing to do with the views of the research department of CITIC Securities.

In fact, the CITIC Electronics team made corrections to the comments on the previous incident.

The corrected comment from CITIC Securities Electronics stated that we have confirmed with the source that there are unlisted fab manufacturers who have confirmed receipt of similar letters. Listed companies such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have not yet responded or need to further confirm with the business department whether they have received a similar letter, which is not directly related to this incident.

Up to now, it is basically certain that the CITIC Securities Electronics team has received news after consulting insiders of SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor. It is true that they have not received the relevant letters, but it does not mean that they have not received them. It may be these insiders. Neither knew.

After the incident has been fermented by major media and self-media platforms, it has developed to the point where it is almost out of control. The CITIC Securities Electronics team itself is not sure if it is a rumor, and can only come out to refute its own rumors. A reversal.

But back to the event itself, SMIC’s 14nm has just started, and it still spent 620 million US dollars in applied materials at the beginning of the year. If the “infinite traceability” mechanism of the United States takes effect, it will naturally be restricted in importing advanced semiconductor equipment from the United States. It will have a big impact on domestic wafer foundries.

But when the soldiers come to block the water and cover the soil, it is really impossible to rush the ducks to the shelves.

Finally, I will quote a sentence from CITIC Securities Electronics: No matter what happens next, this will accelerate the localization of semiconductor equipment, materials, and manufacturing.

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